U.S. pharmaceutical companies are expected to earn more revenue from COVID-19 vaccines in the third quarter than during the entire first half of the year, and that money is expected to continue to grow.
In the first half of the year, Pfizer Inc. PFE,
and MNA from Moderna Inc.,
reported collective sales of $ 17.2 billion for their vaccines, but both are expected to report higher third-quarter totals in the coming week, totaling $ 18 billion. Pfizer is expected to release its results Tuesday morning, while Moderna will follow Thursday morning, after Johnson & Johnson JNJ,
reported more than $ 500 million in third-quarter sales last week, nearly double the $ 264 million raised in the first half.
Pfizer collected $ 11.3 billion in first-half revenue from its COVID-19 vaccine, now known as Comirnaty, and analysts forecast third-quarter revenue of $ 11.86 billion. Those numbers could be a bit high, however, as some sales could be pushed back into the fourth quarter, when booster shots and the newly licensed vaccine for young children start to land in arms.
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Mizuho analysts wrote earlier this month that Pfizer could struggle to generate more than $ 10 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales in the third quarter, although the missing revenue would likely be pushed back into the fourth quarter to the square.
“Comirnaty’s sales led to a remarkable rise in Pfizer’s 1Q21 and 2Q21 numbers, but for 3Q21 we believe the consensus estimates are currently too high based on the orders Pfizer has publicly announced and websites. governments that track actual COVID vaccine shipments, ”wrote analysts, who have a neutral rating and a target price of $ 43 on Pfizer stock. “Our sales estimates for Comirnaty for fiscal year 21 are however unchanged as we shift our revenue from 3Q21 to 4Q21, pending further clarity on order trends and conference call attendance.”
Moderna is expected to report third-quarter vaccine sales of $ 6.17 billion on average, after raising $ 5.93 billion in the first half. The vaccine is more important financially for Moderna, as it is the first product approved for the young pharmaceutical company, but the company faces a potential delay of its own product for children after a setback over the weekend.
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Any forecasts or executives’ colors on fourth-quarter and 2022 expectations will also be important, as analysts forecast more than $ 21 billion in fourth-quarter revenue for Moderna and Pfizer alone. Production capacity will also be an interesting topic, with companies rolling out boosters and doses for younger patients while trying to protect people around the world from the pandemic.
Moderna and Pfizer are two of the 167 S&P 500 SPX,
companies are expected to release their report this week, a number similar to last week as the peak of the earnings season continues. Here’s what to expect in the coming week.
The numbers to watch
Holiday forecast. The forecast for the fourth quarter continues to be revealed, with FactSet reporting that 25 of the 40 S&P 500 companies that provided forecasts have been lower than estimates so far, a worrying sign. Supply chain, staffing and inflation issues have proven difficult for executives trying to predict how their businesses will perform during the holidays, which has taken its toll on Wall Street. for Snap Inc. SNAP,
and Amazon.com Inc. AMZN,
Third quarter results continue to beat expectations so far, but investors’ eyes are more on the holidays than past results. The most interesting should be consumer products companies that manufacture most of their manufacturing overseas, such as Peloton Interactive Inc. PTON,
and GoPro Inc. GPRO,
that the two report on Thursday afternoon.
Sale of video games. Video games were already in contention to be the world’s most lucrative form of entertainment before the COVID-19 pandemic, but a boom in online sales during the shelter-in-place rules made its case even stronger. However, game publishers like Activision Blizzard Inc. ATVI,
Electronic Arts Inc. EA,
and Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. TTWO,
suggested the boom would collapse in the third quarter, causing video game stocks to fall sharply. These big three publishers are expected to release their report this week and have a chance to change that trajectory by reporting stronger results than executives expected and providing good holiday forecasting, as MarketWatch’s Wallace Witkowski explains.
Conference calls to put on your agenda
Uber and Lyft. As Uber Technologies Inc. UBER,
and Lyft Inc. LYFT,
are trying to revive rideshare companies that were hit during the pandemic, analysts believe Uber could win the race, as MarketWatch’s Levi Sumagaysay recently reported. Previously, the competition was aimed at attracting riders to competing platforms, but now it’s more of a battle for drivers than rideshare companies struggling with staff shortages. Keep an ear on these calls to find out which business is succeeding despite the shortage and how it is performing.
Gambling companies. As legal sports gambling continues to expand to new states, casinos have also reopened to players, resulting in an interesting separation between those who continue to gamble online and those who return to the casino counter. The size of this gap should be of interest to investors this week, who have a pretty interesting map of gaming stocks to check with traditional players Caesars Entertainment Inc. CZR,
and MGM Resorts Intl. MGM,
reporting Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, and Penn National Gaming Inc. PENN,
and DraftKings Inc. DKNG,
following Thursday and Friday, respectively. Analysts at Truist Securities recently wrote that gambling was “one of the few sectors to truly emerge from COVID stronger than ever,” with an eye on the continued recovery in person: “Ultimately, we expect continued resilience to COVID and the ever-favorable operating environment for operators with a continued tilt toward destination recovery. Truist analysts’ price targets imply more upside for Penn and Caesars than MGM and DraftKings, but are highest on Bally’s Corp. BALY,
which also reports Thursday.
This week in earnings
While 167 companies in the S&P 500 are expected to report, according to FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters, the week will be much slower for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
Only one Dow component is on the program, with Amgen Inc. AMGN,
scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.
The action is hotter for companies not in the major indexes, like vacation rental company Airbnb Inc. ABNB,
which reports Thursday afternoon, the same day as its online travel rival Expedia Group Inc. EXPE,
and one day after Booking Inc. BKNG,
Young tech companies that can show volatile reactions to earnings, like Roku Inc. ROKU,
Pinterest Pins Inc.,
and Fastly Inc. FSLY,
are also on the program.