Professional traders are slightly skeptical of Bitcoin’s recent return to $ 50,000

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is back at the $ 50,000 level, and there is no doubt that the positive 47% rally over the past 30 days has been fueled by whale build-up, institutional adoption and the positive remarks from regulators regarding a possible exchange-traded fund. (EFT) approval.

Despite the positive news, the top traders in crypto exchanges and derivatives data do not appear to be shaken by the recent rally in the $ 50,000 resistance.

Crypto analyst Will Clemente pointed to the accumulation of addresses containing 1,000-10,000 BTC.

In other news, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo have partnered with New York Digital Investment Group, a technology and financial services company, to offer Bitcoin funds to their wealth management clients.

Positive expectations rose after U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler suggested an opening for approval of ETF products exposed to regulated Bitcoin futures under the Investment Company. Act of 1940.

One final positive piece of news has arrived with Bitcoin’s hash rate increasing 5% over the past week to 125 exahashs per second. Although 30% lower than the peak in mid-May before China’s ban, it proved the operational resilience of the network.

The term premium has remained stable

One of the best measures of optimism for professional traders is the futures market premium. It measures the spread between quarterly contracts and current spot price levels. An annualized premium of 6% to 14% is expected in healthy markets, which is in line with the stable coin lending rate.

However, a backlash scenario occurs during bearish markets as the indicator fades or i becomes negative.

OKEx September BTC Futures Premium. Source: TradingView

Over the past three weeks, the September contract contained a 0.7% premium, which equates to an annualized rate of 7%. While far from the negative range, it shows a lack of confidence, a Bitcoin price has risen 27% over the same time period.

Related: $ 50,000 BTC Price Against The Fed – 5 Things To Watch Out For In Bitcoin This Week

Options markets confirm mixed sentiment

To exclude the externalities specific to the futures instrument, it is also necessary to analyze the options markets. Whenever market makers and professional traders go bullish, they will demand a higher premium on the call options. This trend results in a delta bias of -25%.

A bias indicator ranging between -7% and + 7% is generally considered neutral. On the other hand, the metric moves above this range whenever downside protection is more expensive.

Deribit Bitcoin options 25% delta skew. Source: Laevitas

The 25% delta skew did not show significantly higher costs for upside protection, which would have pushed the index below the -7% threshold.

The two futures instruments primarily used by whales and arbitrage bureaus do not reflect the same wild optimism that Crypto Twitter and retail traders displayed when the price of Bitcoin broke the ‘all-important’ $ 50,000 mark. .

Therefore, there is strong evidence that top traders are not confident about buying at current levels.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trade move involves risk. You should do your own research before making a decision.


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